Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 0.023888 0.027155 0.030719 0.034898 0.039668 0.044945 0.051231
2025-02-23 0.018612 0.023034 0.028293 0.035021 0.043414 0.053563 0.066801
2025-03-02 0.015485 0.020289 0.026344 0.034559 0.045448 0.059436 0.078852
2025-03-09 0.013722 0.018839 0.025605 0.035238 0.048662 0.066797 0.093307
2025-03-16 0.012044 0.017210 0.024325 0.034887 0.050256 0.071940 0.105096
2025-03-23 0.011135 0.016496 0.024158 0.035969 0.053843 0.080079 0.121878
2025-03-30 0.009792 0.014980 0.022640 0.034854 0.053996 0.083107 0.131228
2025-04-06 0.008827 0.013910 0.021648 0.034377 0.054990 0.087389 0.142828
2025-04-13 0.007819 0.012662 0.020243 0.033078 0.054497 0.089209 0.150533
2025-04-20 0.007447 0.012386 0.020330 0.034167 0.057949 0.097666 0.170082
2025-04-27 0.007070 0.012057 0.020289 0.035015 0.061045 0.105775 0.189813
2025-05-04 0.006770 0.011825 0.020380 0.036080 0.064586 0.114935 0.212307
2025-05-11 0.006264 0.011202 0.019762 0.035871 0.065903 0.120397 0.228832
2025-05-18 0.005866 0.010734 0.019376 0.036044 0.067937 0.127366 0.249000
2025-05-25 0.005416 0.010128 0.018680 0.035565 0.068677 0.131952 0.264963
2025-06-01 0.005170 0.009877 0.018614 0.036265 0.071736 0.141242 0.291300
2025-06-08 0.004812 0.009379 0.018034 0.035903 0.072648 0.146372 0.309588
2025-06-15 0.004661 0.009271 0.018191 0.037018 0.076642 0.158068 0.343000
2025-06-22 0.004268 0.008647 0.017281 0.035869 0.075821 0.159722 0.354744
2025-06-29 0.003982 0.008214 0.016715 0.035378 0.076336 0.164217 0.373243
2025-07-06 0.003637 0.007629 0.015790 0.034040 0.074883 0.164307 0.381667
2025-07-13 0.003552 0.007588 0.015992 0.035161 0.078970 0.176992 0.420872
2025-07-20 0.003449 0.007497 0.016081 0.036036 0.082576 0.188928 0.459596